El Nino 2002
Mother Nature is ready to call the shots in another El Nino season. However, each El Nino is different and has its own set of rules. While the last round was like a game of high-stakes, no-limit Texas hold 'em, this season will most likely be like a bingo at the local church. Everyone will have a chance to score, and no one will walk away feeling like they lost everything.
In a press release dated July 11, 2002, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced the details of the upcoming weather patterns. "This time around, El Nino will not be as powerful as the 1997-1998 event, but we'll track it closely for any change in its projected strength," said Vernon Kousky, a meteorologist and climate specialist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland. Once it matures, Kousky said, El Nino should maintain weak to moderate strength.
El Nino, Spanish for "The Child," is recognized by warmer water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and abnormally heavy rainfall in South America. It causes the East Asian jet stream to shift south, slamming it directly into Central California. The result is often an abnormally stormy winter in California and across the southern tier of the United States, as well as a drier, warmer winter in the Pacific Northwest. Ultimately, the influence of high- and low-pressure systems will decide what happens to the jet stream as it passes over North America. While the mountains of Southern California went off during the last El Nino, there is no guarantee that the same thing will happen this year.
This El Nino may be weak in comparison to previous events, but it is already having serious repercussions. Early indicators appeared in June as storms ripped through Chile and caused widespread flooding. From June 1-3, 2002, nearly five inches of rain fell in the Chilean capital of Santiago, killing at least nine people and sending about 50,000 residents fleeing from their homes. But while Santiagans ran in fear, skiers rejoiced as the South American Andes were pummeled with early-season snow.
The Child may influence snowfall this winter, but it is joined by other factors. It is easy to say that one place will get more or less snow than average due to changes in normal conditions, but what about the local weather patterns that create storms? Because of its well-known name, El Nino is now known to skiers as Satan's little helper-or a Godsend. It has been hyped so much in past years that people blame it for every dry spell or thank it for every huge dump. Areas such as California and the Pacific Northwest will see the greatest change in weather, but because of media hype, everyone living near a ski town will be talking about the effects it could have on their snow totals. -Brian McLeod